How to bet on underdogs

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There is a unique appeal to following a well-matched underdog, from classic stories of unexpected victories to modern sports moments where teams defy expectations. Both sportsbooks and bettors understand that underdogs play a significant role in the wagering landscape. Read on for a breakdown of how underdog odds work, where their value originates, and how to approach placing underdog wagers.

What does an underdog mean?

An underdog is a competitor that is considered less likely to win by both the public and oddsmakers. Whether it is a political candidate facing an uphill race or a country competing at the Eurovision Song Contest, the general definition remains the same: an individual or team with a lower perceived chance of success.

In sports betting, underdogs are often seen as options that carry higher risk but offer higher potential rewards. Because their calculated probability of winning is lower, their betting odds are set at a higher rate. They are a fundamental part of the sports betting landscape, helping to shape how lines are set and how betting volume moves across different markets.

The beginnings of the underdog

The term “underdog” has its historical roots in 19th-century dogfighting, where the winning animal was referred to as the “top dog” and the losing competitor was called the “underdog.” Over time, this phrase transitioned from its dark origins into standard English, becoming a popular term used to describe teams or individuals fighting against the odds in sports and popular culture.

For strategic bettors, underdogs represent a practical way to find value rather than just a compelling story. Because sportsbooks assign them a lower probability of winning, underdogs offer larger potential payouts relative to the amount wagered. Choosing to back an underdog can be an effective approach, allowing you to limit your initial financial exposure while maintaining access to solid returns if an upset occurs.

Approaching Underdog Betting Strategically

Relying on emotion or narrative when backing an underdog can be a difficult approach to sustain over the long term. Successful betting typically depends on objective analysis rather than personal preference or a compelling story. To find value in underdog markets, it is helpful to look for specific data points and statistical indicators.

Instead of guessing, you can focus on identifying market inefficiencies, structural patterns, and historical trends. Consider these key factors when evaluating potential value on underdogs:

Looking Ahead at Sports Trends

If you could predict future outcomes with certainty, you would not need a betting strategy. Knowing ahead of time when a +500,000 (5,001.00) long shot like Leicester City might secure the Premier League title would make analysis unnecessary.

For most people, relying on luck is not a sustainable long-term approach. Notable sports upsets do happen, but they are usually the result of underlying metrics, developing trends, or factors the market may have overlooked. The key is developing the analytical discipline needed to identify these potential opportunities before the odds adjust.

Evaluating Mispriced Talent

It is helpful to avoid confusing a temporary dip in performance with a lack of fundamental ability. Occasionally, the betting market may classify an experienced, high-caliber competitor as a significant long shot.A clear example of this is Goran Ivanišević’s notable 2001 Wimbledon victory. While his pre-tournament odds of +15,000 (151.0) suggested he was a heavy underdog, his career history showed a different picture.

Ivanišević was an experienced competitor who had previously reached World No. 2, won 22 ATP Tour singles titles, and appeared in three prior Wimbledon finals. Leading up to the summer of 2001, injuries and a drop in form had caused his world ranking to slip to 125, meaning he could only enter the tournament via a wildcard invitation. Sportsbooks focused heavily on his recent struggles, adjusting his odds upward and largely overlooking his extensive experience on grass courts.

Ultimately, his skill level was higher than his price suggested. Finding value in these types of situations often involves identifying proven competitors whose odds have been adjusted too low due to a temporary slump or a recent injury.

Finding Value in Underdog Wagers

Identifying value is a key component when considering underdogs. If your research indicates that a team is being undervalued by the sportsbooks, you may have found a practical opportunity. Consider a La Liga matchup between Barcelona and Sevilla as an example.

If Real Madrid is missing an important tactical player who helps control the tempo of their midfield, like Frenkie de Jong, the sportsbooks might not fully account for that absence. While the general betting public often focuses primarily on star forwards, you might notice that the lack of a key midfielder creates a subtle structural vulnerability.

If your analysis suggests that Sevilla matches up well tactically due to this roster change, the current market lines may be slightly off. Relying on your research to back Sevilla at underdog odds when the matchup is closer than the line suggests is a common way to find value and take advantage of sportsbook adjustments.

Check the weather

Weather conditions are less relevant if you focus your wagering on indoor sports like the NHL or the NBA. However, if you look at outdoor events, particularly in the NFL, keeping a close eye on the forecast can be a useful part of your routine.

Extreme weather often acts as a leveling factor between two teams. For example, heavy rain or snow can slow down a favorite’s strong passing game, shifting the matchup toward a more cautious, ground-based approach. These conditions can quickly change the dynamic of a game, reducing the advantage a top-tier team might typically hold.

If you monitor changing weather patterns and place your wagers before sportsbooks adjust their lines, you can get ahead of the closing market price. This approach allows you to identify positive expected value by anticipating how environmental factors will influence the game.

Evaluating Team Motivation

Securing early championship titles or locking in playoff seeds can create noticeable shifts in sportsbook lines. When a top-tier team guarantees its postseason positioning with games still left on the regular schedule, coaches frequently choose to rest their star players to prevent unnecessary injuries before the playoffs begin.

This shift in motivation often creates a brief discrepancy in the betting market. The favored team may enter the game with a modified lineup, which can give a competitive edge to a motivated underdog that is still actively fighting for a playoff spot or survival.

Reviewing what is at stake for both sides before placing a wager can be a helpful practice. When a favorite has already achieved its regular-season goals, looking closely at the underdog can often reveal a practical opportunity.

Evaluating Home-Field Advantage

Home-field advantage can act as a notable equalizer, sometimes giving an underdog a distinct edge over a statistically stronger opponent. Factors such as an energetic crowd, a unique stadium configuration, or a demanding local climate can alter the dynamic of a game. A clear example of this can be found in Denver, Colorado.

When opposing teams play the NBA’s Denver Nuggets or the NFL’s Denver Broncos on their home turf, the local environment becomes a major factor in the matchup. Situated over 5,000 feet above sea level, the thin mountain air can accelerate fatigue for visiting players who are not acclimated to the altitude, potentially leading to physical exhaustion and late-game mistakes.

In these situations, standard season statistics may not tell the whole story. A highly rated visiting team can find its performance hindered by environmental challenges, creating an opportunity for an underdog to secure an upset. When analyzing a game, factoring in the specific conditions of the venue can provide a more accurate outlook than relying on raw team data alone.